HUM & CHUCK

View Original

Opening Day: Predictions on the 2021 Season

It’s been a long winter. It’s been a long winter personally and professionally, and the global pandemic hasn’t helped. I haven’t been up to writing about baseball, hence the crickets in the space.

A lot has happened since I wrote last: The Blue Jays signed George Springer; Vlad Jr. lost the equivalent of a medium-sized child in weight; Hank Aaron died; Mickey Callaway was trash and who knew he was trash became problematic for the Blue Jays; The Age of Kirk has been allowed to continue.

A lot of things have happened. And I didn’t write about any of it.


Back when I did write more and back before it change it’s sports department, the National Post used to ask questions of the “bloggers” and we’d all send our answers. I did it for a few years and once predicted that Edwin Encarnación was going to have breakout season, and then he did.

So I dug out the list of questions from 2014 from an old email (Hi Erika Gilbert!) and thought I’d adapt it for 2021.

Let’s go.

Which player who is expected to start the year in the minors will be a key contributor this season?

Are there even still minor leagues? I know MLB has tried to starve it out in various ways, hidden underneath the shadow of a global pandemic and that the Blue Jays are likely going to play some or all their season in Buffalo. So in the absence of a minor league system a player can be called up from, I’m just going to select one of the boys on the bubble. Julian Merryweather was acquired from Cleveland for Josh Donaldson in 2018, a season Merryweather was recovering from Tommy John surgery. He’s 29 years old and been just kind of hanging out, making appearances in 13 games in 2020. The Blue Jays have toyed with making him a starter or keeping him as a reliever. Merryweather has pretty electric arm when he’s healthy, and given his age, it’s likely go time. If he remains healthy, sky’s the limit.

Which player will break out this year and provide a full season of the production fans have been waiting for?

It feels mean to say this, mostly because I don’t really think the dude has been disappointing in any real way, but I’m going to go with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. He’s put the work in the lose weight, the raw skills are still ever present, and he’s still only just turned 22.

Which player will disappoint?

Every year, this question was asked and I answered it the same way each time: All of them. All of them will be disappointing.

Who will have a better year at the plate: José Bautista Teoscar Hernández or Edwin Encarnación Vlad Jr.?

I just substituted some new Dominicans, and also day dreamed a little about the Bautista/ Encarnación in the lineup. Anyway, Hernández is coming off a Silver Slugger award, and looks fit as heck in spring training. As I mentioned earlier, if Vlad stays in shape, I think the two of them could make life very, very difficult for opposing pitchers. I didn’t answer the question, but it looks like I didn’t in 2014, either.

What can we expect from Melky Cabrera after a 2013 hampered by leg issues/a spinal tumor?

No Blue Jay was hampered by leg issues or a spinal tumour last year, so I’m just going to use this space to be excited about George Springer. I admired him as an Astro (despite whatever cloud hangs over that team post- trash can shenanigans) and wanted the Blue Jays to go after him. And they did with a $150-million, six-year contract.

"It is a young lineup but it's a very talented, advanced younger lineup," Springer said in his introductory video call back in January. "I think everything that I've heard and everything that I've seen is that they're very, very ambitious, that they want to win and they work hard.

"That's pretty much awesome. It's awesome to see."

There's been plenty of optimism about Drew Hutchison this spring. Can the Jays count on him?

Who is pitching for this team besides Ryu? Of all the question marks for 2021, I’d say the rotation is the biggest one. I’m not sure why the Jays didn’t throw any money at Tajuan Walker. But he’s a Met.

Anyway, the rotation will be Ryu and some combo of Ray, Matz, Stripling, Roark, and Pearson, with Pearson likely being the most interesting. This boy has a lot of impressive tools, and it’ll be interesting to see if he can pull it together.

Also, if the Blue Jays are feeling flush later in the season, David Price is starting the season in the ‘pen for the Dodgers.

Will Ryan Goins Marcus Semien hit enough to be the Jays' everyday second baseman?

My pick for most intriguing signing of the offseason, (non-Springer division) is Marcus Semien. He had a down 2020 (I mean, who didn’t?) with the A’s, but Semien hit .285 with 33 home runs and an .892 OPS while appearing in all 162 games for the A’s, a team that seemed bereft in losing him.

“I mean, it just sucks,” Athletics pitcher Chris Bassitt said in a recent interview with Alex Coffey of The Athletic. “I mean, there is no dispute that he was the leader of our team. He was the leader for the entire community stuff that we did. Obviously, it’s a business, this is part of it, but I mean losing someone like Marcus is a big blow."

Semien has moved over to second base, he told MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson in Dunedin in the spring.

“The angle off the bat, from a righty, there's a lot more balls that slice away from you. "The double-play turn and double-play feed are the biggest thing for me that I will work on every day. It felt pretty natural today. I've been working on that in the offseason and now we're able to get on the field every day and do it."

Looking for quotes for this, I found out Bo Bichette really likes Justin Bieber.
That’s kind of cute, Bo. He gets his peaches out in Georgia.

Will R.A. Dickey's 2014 performance be more like his Cy Young-winning 2012 or his uneven 2013?

I think Ryu was great last year, basically exactly as advertised. It’s just so indicative of this crazy time that Ryu has yet to pitch in the Rogers Centre, even though he’s entered his second year as a Blue Jay. Also, he hasn’t done my pitched idea to Sportsnet, which is them following him around as he visits Korea Town in Toronto. I just give these ideas away for free.

How short a leash should Alex Anthopoulos and John Gibbons have this season?

Oh, Gibby. Anyway, the two takeaways here are this: Mark Shapiro has a way bigger presence as an executive than Paul Beeston did. Like, when Anthopolous made deals (big ones, like trading for Reyes and Buehrle; signing Russell Martin; trading for Donaldson, Price, and Tulowitzki), they felt like his moves. But Springer and Ryu, that feels like Shapiro. I don’t think I’m insulting Paul Beeston here, but I may be insulting Ross Atkins.

It’s just a different feel.

Anyway, the mood has definitely changed from “maybe soon” to “Ride now, ride now, ride! Ride for ruin and the world's ending!” in 2021, and I guess that escalates things for Ross Atkins. I would like Charlie Montoyo to stop asking dudes to sac bunt. And I’d like him to get tossed more. It’s ok to be angry sometimes. Dante Bichette can’t do it for you now.

How many games will the Jays win, and will they contend for a playoff spot?

87, on nothing but a hunch. And, sure. I keep forgetting that they made the playoffs in 2020, even though it definitely didn’t seem like they actually did. 2020 was a hell of a trip.


Just for reference, this is what I wrote in 2014.

Which player who is expected to start the year in the minors will be a key contributor this season?

Pocket-sized Stroman has good command, a nice slider and doesn't walk guys, so that leads me to believe he’s ready for the Show. However, it would give me so much joy for it to be Ricky Romero, because his situation just makes me sad.

Which player will break out this year and provide a full season of the production fans have been waiting for?

Our crazy diamond at third base will shine on, especially if he learns to harness his incandescent energy and be more zen at the plate.

Which player will disappoint?

All of them. I’m managing my expectations.

Who will have a better year at the plate: Jose Bautista or Edwin Encarnacion?

The trend is pointing towards Encarnación, but if both have great seasons, it’s truly an embarrassment of riches. Date brillo cadenta que tu mojo llega.

What can we expect from Melky Cabrera after a 2013 hampered by leg issues/a spinal tumor?

Between the drug suspension and the tumour, Melky’s actual ability is a bit of a mystery. I just want him to hit. Please just hit.

There's been plenty of optimism about Drew Hutchison this spring. Can the Jays count on him?

I kind of enjoy the idea that the Jays somehow have the option to not count on Hutchison.  I’m fond of any pitcher who throws a changeup and Hutchison pitched like a demon this spring, so I’m anxious to see.

Will Ryan Goins hit enough to be the Jays' everyday second baseman?

No. Just no.

Will R.A. Dickey's 2014 performance be more like his Cy Young-winning 2012 or his uneven 2013?

It, along with everything else, depends on health. People also have to understand that the knuckleball is a cruel mistress.

How short a leash should Alex Anthopoulos and John Gibbons have this season?

Just long enough to string them up with.

How many games will the Jays win, and will they contend for a playoff spot?

I’m going to say 83 and no, so when it’s 12 more wins and yes to the playoffs, I’ll be just that much more thrilled.

The rest of the panel can be read here. Even if Drew Fairservice hadn’t been identified, his random dissing of Mark Buehrle is a tell. Never has a man so consistently dissed his own baseball twin.